Deloitte Says Generative AI Cannot Offset the Retirement of 900,000 Swiss Workers
About 900,000 people in Switzerland will reach retirement age over the next ten years, roughly 20 percent of today's workforce, and generative AI will only partly fill the gap, according to a Deloitte analysis reported by Netzwoche on October 22. The consultancy combined data on demographic replacement demand with an index of AI transformation potential across 279 occupations.
The mismatch is stark. In nursing, skilled trades, transport and education, the share of workers over 55 is especially high, yet today's AI can automate relatively little of the work. AI can ease documentation, planning and administration, but for the foreseeable future it will hardly care for patients, teach children or do physical labour, so Deloitte expects shortages in these jobs to deepen despite AI.
ICT and marketing show the opposite pattern: low replacement demand but high AI exposure. In Deloitte's ranking of transformation potential, programming, software development and web and multimedia development take the top three places. Routine coding is likely to lose importance even as demand grows for AI-powered software, which needs specialists who can integrate models into existing systems and handle data, security and regulation, so Deloitte says the net effect on programming jobs is hard to call. Netzwoche added that registered unemployment in ICT occupations rose from 6,958 to 7,186 between January and June 2026.
What it means in practice
Deloitte's advice is to automate administrative work in shortage professions so scarce staff can focus on care and craft, and to retrain people and redesign roles in office and knowledge jobs. It also warns about junior talent: newcomers have traditionally learned through simple routine tasks that AI can now largely do. “The biggest danger is not that AI replaces jobs. The bigger danger is that companies leave their ways of working unchanged and simply put AI on top,” said Marc Beierschoder, head of AI and data at Deloitte Switzerland (translated from German). Chief economist Michael Grampp said competitiveness depends on how quickly firms integrate generative AI.
The findings add a demographic angle to other recent Swiss labour data, including the study showing a 32 percent jump in AI job ads and Syndicom's finding that AI is raising pressure on telecom workers.
What to watch: whether cantons and employers fund AI for documentation in hospitals and care homes, how apprenticeships and entry-level ICT roles adapt, and whether ICT unemployment keeps rising into 2027.